Gold & Base Metal Stock Picks For 2003

Midway Gold Takes The Fast Track To Success In Gold-rich Nevada

Marc Davis, Managing Editor

One clear "standout" among North America's many gold exploration juniors is Midway Gold Corporation (TSX.V-MDW). The company boasts a large, extensively mineralized advanced-stage gold property in Nevada. And the project benefits from the financial backing and full exploration resources of the world's most successful gold mining company. In essence, Midway has the right dynamics for a relatively risk-free "home run."

Specifically, Midway is joint ventured with Newmont Mining Corporation, which is aggressively exploring and developing Midway's highly regarded gold discovery and associated gold prospects. All of this is at no cost to the Canadian junior. In return, Newmont has the right to earn an initial 51 per cent interest in Midway's 30,000-acre land concessions by spending U.S. $8.8 million (Can. $13.2 million) over four years. An additional 19 per cent (70 per cent interest in total) can be earned upon the delivery of a multi-million dollar feasibility study - the blueprint for a mine.

This, in itself, is an enviable scenario for Midway. Yet, the shrewdly managed company also has a strategically enviable trump card up its sleeve. If Newmont successfully adds to the property's existing gold resources, Midway stands to participate in a world-class gold discovery. Alternatively, if Newmont fails to meet its multi-million-ounce threshold, then the global mining powerhouse is expected to abandon the project. And this would leave Midway with clear title to an extensively drilled deposit, hosting a likely resource of one million ounces or more of gold. Either way, Midway wins.

Let's look at the facts to see why Midway's story has so much upside and comparatively little downside.

First of all, there's the geological environment in which Midway is established. Nevada is the third largest gold producing region in the world, after Australia and South Africa. But Nevada's history as an ideal but extensively explored hunting ground for lustrous buried treasure has had its problems. Within the last couple of decades, it has proven difficult to acquire parcels of the most prospective land in Nevada's three golden geological corridors. The lion's share of these properties had been tied up by major mining companies which typically took a 'wait and see' approach before embarking upon costly exploration programs. In essence, these properties were merely being stockpiled. Moreover, since 1980, a long-term downtrend in bullion prices had (until recently) offered little incentive to spend money on 'grass roots' exploration projects. By the late 90s, bullion prices had hit rock bottom. That's when many of these companies 'threw in the towel,' leaving exploration leases for large tracts of land to lapse.

Enter Midway Gold.

In mid 2000, Midway saw its window of opportunity and was quick to act. The Discovery Zone property was picked up after it was dropped by Kennecott Exploration, a subsidiary of the world's largest mining company, Rio Tinto Ltd. Gold prices were about to rebound from their lows. But that didn't matter to Kennecott. Its new parent company had decided that developing projects with less than five million ounces of gold no longer suited its corporate objectives. At that time, the Discovery Zone Project, which is now Midway's core holding on its now greatly expanded property, had been drilled extensively by Kennecott. In the early going, Kennecott's geologists calculated a preliminary gold resource of at least 270,000 ounces, based on 135 drill holes. Since then, however, a total of 103 drill holes have delineated an estimated gold resource that may be as high as one million ounces. Maybe that wasn't enough to excite Kennecott. But it proved to be a great springboard for Midway's shot at proving up a mineable resource.

In the summer of 2001, Midway began step-out drilling around the Discovery Zone to determine if this small deposit might extend beyond Kennecott's initial area of focus. Success came quickly as drilling encountered high-grade intersections that suggested a much larger deposit. In turn, this attracted the attention of Newmont Mining Corporation, a dominant force in Nevada's mining camps with an annual production rate of nearly eight million ounces of gold. Within several weeks, Midway President Brian McAlister announced a joint venture partnership with Newmont. Indeed, it's a sweetheart deal in that Midway is "carried" i.e. Newmont is obliged to shoulder all the exploration costs.

As of late 2002, Midway had increased its land holdings to cover a linear trend of strong anomalies that span 30,000 acres - all along 14.5 miles (23 kilometers) of strike length on the Walker Lane mineral belt. This significantly increased land position covers a number of highly prospective gold zones that may have similar potential to the one-million-ounce Discovery Zone. This is particularly significant as the Discovery Zone is a near-surface gold resource. And it is amenable to a low-cost, open pit mining operation in an area with excellent infrastructure, which would minimize mining costs even further.

Indeed, Newmont likes what it sees. The gold mining heavyweight sees the potential for a multi-million ounce gold resource spanning the length of the jointly-held property. Anything less would not suit Newmont's mandate to focus exclusively on major ore bodies. And that suits Midway just fine in that Newmont would be prepared to dig down into its deep pockets to develop the Discovery Zone deposit to a commercial threshold. Meanwhile, Newmont's near-term game plan is to continue systematically probing the rest of this highly prospective property. Thus far, a program of airborne geophysics and other key exploration techniques has identified numerous additional drill targets within Midway's slice of the Walker-Lane mineralized structure. To date, Newmont has identified nine high priority drill targets, including several that have characteristics very similar to the gold-rich Discovery Zone deposit.

As of early January 2003, Newmont has embarked upon a 30,000-feet (9,100 meter) drill program with several strategic goals in mind. First, Newmont wants to explore deep beneath the Discovery Zone deposit to test for high-grade "bonanza" structures. This would allow Newmont to zero-in on the mineralized zones with the highest concentrations of gold. Second, the drilling is expected to offer a better indication of the overall grade and tonnage of this deposit. Third, Newmont intends to drill into the nine new high-priority targets elsewhere on the property to better evaluate their potential for an extension of the existing gold resource.

With the prolific Goldfield and Tonopah mines a few miles to the south and the Round Mountain and Manhattan mines a similar distance to the north, Midway is ideally positioned in the heart of a rich gold district. In other words, this is "elephant country" - a geologist's catch phrase for terrain that often hosts "company-building" gold finds.

This reality is what fires the imagination of Tom Patton, a savvy and very successful geologist who initially convinced Midway to pick up the parched piece of desert that is now the Discovery Zone deposit. Relying upon 35 years of experience in hunting for mineral deposits over the world, he is now a consulting geologist to Midway. And he knows a good thing when he sees it. That's why he really likes Midway's prospects for turning its desolate strip of land into a hive of mining activity.

"Here's my opinion. A best-case scenario is the discovery of ten-million ounces of gold in several deposits. Worst case, Newmont will pull out and Midway will own 100 per cent of a million ounces of high-grade gold in the Discovery Zone," Patton enthuses.

Either way, the upside for Midway's share price seems excellent in 2003. The company is an obvious candidate to be bought-out by Newmont at a premium to its stock's trading range. That is, of course, if a multi-million ounce gold resource is discovered. Moreover, a similar opportunity exists if Newmont fails to find a world-class deposit and leaves Midway to develop the Discovery Zone deposit by itself. In such an instance, a medium sized gold company is likely to make Midway's shareholders an offer that they won't want to refuse.

In closing, Midway has a tight share structure, an upwardly trending stock chart, and a very successful and capable management team. The company also benefits from a partnership with the world's largest gold mining company, which is bankrolling the exploration and development of this extensively prospective 30,000-acre property. Most importantly, Midway holds a majority interest in a well-developed one million ounce gold deposit, and there exists considerable "blue sky" potential on its other gold prospects.

SmallCapMedia expects Midway to have a feasibility study underway by the year's end for at least one million ounces of gold (valued at approximately U.S. $360 million at today's bullion prices). Assuming that a production decision is favorable (which is far from being a forgone conclusion), and by factoring in mining costs and a conservative gold recovery rate, this would offer a net project value of about $200 million. Accordingly, with 19 million shares outstanding (fully diluted), we suggest that Midway's share price could have a hypothetical value of around Can. $10 (U.S. $6.70) by the year's end.